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Apple Valley, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Apple Valley MN
National Weather Service Forecast for: Apple Valley MN
Issued by: National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN
Updated: 2:28 pm CDT Jul 8, 2025
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 82. West northwest wind around 10 mph.
Sunny

Tonight

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Mostly Clear

Wednesday

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind.
Sunny

Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Mostly Clear

Thursday

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 85. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Partly Sunny
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
Showers then
Showers
Likely
Friday

Friday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 5 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Showers
Likely

Friday
Night
Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. West northwest wind around 5 mph.
Chance
T-storms

Saturday

Saturday: A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 5 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance
Showers then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Hi 82 °F Lo 61 °F Hi 82 °F Lo 64 °F Hi 85 °F Lo 68 °F Hi 79 °F Lo 64 °F Hi 77 °F

 

This Afternoon
 
Sunny, with a high near 82. West northwest wind around 10 mph.
Tonight
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind.
Wednesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Thursday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Friday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. West northwest wind around 5 mph.
Saturday
 
A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. West southwest wind around 5 mph.
Sunday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 82. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Monday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 84. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Apple Valley MN.

Weather Forecast Discussion
995
FXUS63 KMPX 082000
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
300 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet through Wednesday with highs around 80 and lows in the
  upper 50s to low 60s.

- Shower and storm chances return Thursday and Friday, with
  better chances in the afternoon and evening hours both days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A look at surface obs this afternoon shows typical afternoon
cumulus forming across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Western Minnesota is seeing some of the lower ceilings around
3,000 ft. Winds are generally light and from the northwest, but
will become calm overnight before returning to light tomorrow
from the northeast/east. These quiet conditions are due to a
surface high pressure in the region, which could be disturbed
come Thursday and Friday.

A strengthening LLJ Wednesday night will drive convection in
western Iowa overnight, but it`s possible some showers and
storms could overspread parts of southern and western Minnesota.
How this plays out will impact Thursday`s chances for
convection. It appears the overnight activity should keep the
surface front suppressed to the southwest for much of the day,
with warm air advection and a persistent LLJ likely keeping
convection active across Iowa. By Thursday night, a shortwave
trough over the central Plains will lift northeast while a
larger trough over the northern Rockies/northern Plains begins
to approach from the west. This should lead to thunderstorm
chances increasing farther north in our area, but as is typical
with convective events, confidence is generally low at this
range and mesoscale details will ultimately determine the
outcome. Nevertheless, the two troughs will interact and
eventually phase with each other over the Upper Midwest Thursday
night and Friday when thunderstorm chances increase. ECMWF
Ensemble is forecasting PWATs at 120-150% of normal, which comes
out to around 1.5-1.75" liquid. With this in mind, widespread
showers and storms introduce risk for heavy rainfall. This also
aligns with WPC`s day 3 and 4 excessive rainfall forecast with a
Marginal for the area on Thursday and Friday (with a slight
just against the IA/SD/MN border on Friday).

The trough the brings the aforementioned storm chances will
move into the Great Lakes region by this weekend. Summer-like
temperatures in the 70s and low 80s will continue Saturday and
Sunday with the isolated chance for a diurnal pop-up
thunderstorm. Slight ridging returns on Monday with a bump in
temperatures in its company. Highs on Monday will be in the
upper 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s, leading to more soupy
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR through the period with no precipitation expected. Winds
generally light and from the NW, becoming more N/NE by Wednesday
afternoon. It is possible we see another morning with isolated
patches of fog, but confidence on that is low and have left out
of the TAFs for now.

KMSP...Scattered CU expected to develop this afternoon.
Otherwise, no concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind N 5kts.
THU...VFR, chc -TSRA overnight. Wind S 5-10kts.
FRI...SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind SW 5-10kts bcmg W 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...PV
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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