Apple Valley, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

666
FXUS63 KMPX 082322
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
622 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures gradually warm this week, peaking on Thursday,
  with widespread highs in the 80s across central and southern
  MN.

- Chance of rain this weekend, with a brief cooldown to follow
  at the start of next week, widespread freeze possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

The current pattern will continue through Friday when a frontal
passage will change our airmass and bring some cooler
temperatures back. With warm air advection and high pressure
continuing today through Thursday temperatures will peak in
the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday afternoon. With records closer
to 90 on Thursday we likely won`t set records, but it could be
close if temperatures over-perform. The trend towards the front
moving through sooner on Friday has held with temperatures on
Friday topping out in the mid 60s to mid 70s rather than a
repeat of Thursday. Further shifts in timing becomes less
likely as the day gets closer and ensemble confidence increases.
With moisture lacking Friday`s frontal passage should remain
dry.

There is finally a chance for rain is over the weekend. The
chances look better to our north along the northern quadrants of
the low, but this is the best chance for rain we have seen in a
while. These locations for the main precipitation area show
that we are moving closer to the winter season as this is where
winter low often have their Fgen maximized as warm air rises in
those quadrants and this is what is forecast to happen this
weekend. Looking into ensemble systems most members of the GEFS
and GEPS keep us dry while the ENS is more aggressive with
bring the QPF farther south. Looking at a point north, closer
to Duluth, you will see more widespread agreement in QPF
between the three ensemble systems. Behind this system cooler
air will advect in with the lowest temperatures expected on
Monday where highs are only in the low to mid 50s with morning
lows in the 30s. With clear skies likely though the radiational
cooling could over-perform and Monday morning could be our
first widespread freeze. If Monday morning doesn`t give a freeze
than Tuesday morning should. Between the two mornings the only
spots that might hold above freezing would be the urban core of
the Twin Cities.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Another quiet TAF period with light winds at 110-140 below 5kts
increasing to 7-8kts after 20z, otherwise SKC and VFR
throughout.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts becoming NW.
Sat...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH