Apple Valley, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
|
NWS Forecast for Apple Valley MN
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Apple Valley MN
Issued by: National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN |
Updated: 4:28 pm CDT Jul 26, 2025 |
|
Tonight
 Mostly Clear
|
Sunday
 Sunny
|
Sunday Night
 T-storms Likely
|
Monday
 Chance T-storms then Sunny
|
Monday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms then Heavy Rain
|
Tuesday
 Slight Chance T-storms
|
Tuesday Night
 Chance T-storms
|
Wednesday
 Partly Sunny
|
Wednesday Night
 Mostly Clear
|
Lo 71 °F |
Hi 90 °F |
Lo 73 °F |
Hi 90 °F |
Lo 69 °F |
Hi 83 °F |
Lo 64 °F |
Hi 78 °F |
Lo 58 °F |
|
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Extreme Heat Warning
Tonight
|
Mostly clear, with a low around 71. South southwest wind around 5 mph. |
Sunday
|
Sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 102. South wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Sunday Night
|
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 10pm and 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. |
Monday
|
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am. Sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 97. West wind around 5 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. |
Monday Night
|
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. |
Tuesday
|
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Tuesday Night
|
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. North northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Wednesday
|
Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Wednesday Night
|
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Thursday
|
Sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Thursday Night
|
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. |
Friday
|
Sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. |
Friday Night
|
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. South southeast wind around 5 mph. |
Saturday
|
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. South wind around 5 mph. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Apple Valley MN.
|
Weather Forecast Discussion
713
FXUS63 KMPX 261958
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
258 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat and humidity intensify Sunday with highs in the upper
80s to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to mid 100s.
- Unsettled weather resumes late Sunday and lasts through early
next week. Severe storms are possible Sunday night and heavy
rainfall is possible Monday night.
- Cooler and drier conditions later next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
A few early day storms across western MN have finally dissipated
and the growth of CU from patchy overnight fog is also decaying
this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed into the mid and
upper 80s, with a few spots in western MN now touching 90. Dew
points have been mostly in the low 70s. Thunderstorm development
could occur this evening along the ND/SD border area and spread
east northeast overnight. Much of this activity should remain
north of the area, but cannot rule out a few storms as far south
as central MN through early Sunday.
Thermal ridging will build farther east for Sunday. Temperatures
shouldn`t be the main story, although the typical hot areas of
west central MN could make a run for the upper 90s if 925 mb
temps of +30C pan out. Rather, dew points in the mid to upper
70s will be the main driver of dangerous heat indices and
WBGTs. Steep mid level lapse rates and 700 mb temps exceeding
+12C by afternoon should keep the area capped, so the chance of
convective contamination of the airmass is low. Heat indices
are expected to reach around 110 across southwestern MN where
dew points will be in the upper 70s and temperatures in the mid
to upper 90s. Heat indices decrease to around 100 across central
MN and western WI. WBGTs in the upper 80s are also possible. The
Extreme Heat Watch has been upgraded to a warning or a Heat
Advisory depending on the resultant heat indices.
The ridge will build westward Sunday night while a trough
reaches central Canada. This will turn mid level winds more
westerly and speeds will increase to around 40 kts. Extreme
instability will develop Sunday afternoon, lingering well into
Sunday night. Residual boundaries from the morning convection
should get thunderstorm initiation in the afternoon over
northwest MN, which should be able to develop a cold pool and
dive southeast Sunday night. Models are beginning to handle this
scenario a bit better, and the SPC has upgraded to a Slight risk
across central MN and northern WI. Damaging winds will be the
main threat, but some large hail given the very steep lapse
rates and a couple QLCS tornadoes are also possible.
What becomes of Sunday night will set the stage for later Monday.
A boundary will lay out somewhere across the area, likely
beginning the day in southern MN then lifting north during the
afternoon. Very high pwats possibly greater than 2 inches, an
extremely unstable airmass remaining in place, and a
strengthening N-S LLJ later in the day impinging on the E-W
boundary could bring renewed thunderstorm development capable of
very heavy rain. Some guidance suggest the possibility of an
MCS developing and tracking east along the front, which would
lead to a damaging wind threat. Another possibility is for
training thunderstorms along the front, or along the southern
edge of the cold pool from the MCS. Confidence and
predictability for where this will set up are still low and
will depend on a number of things between now and then.
Solutions range from the heaviest rain falling as far north as
central MN and northern WI, to as far south as southeastern SD
and IA. Confidence in the occurrence of heavy rain is much
higher and some solutions highlight areas receiving greater than
3 or 4 inches.
The front should sag a little farther south for Tuesday which
should shunt most of the thunderstorm threat to IA, but spatial
differences in the frontal position warrant continuing low
PoPs Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Cooler and drier air will follow for the rest of the week with
surface high pressure building in.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
A developing cumulus field between 2500-3000 feet will
contribute to few to scattered sky coverage across the area this
afternoon. Additionally, decaying showers and storms in west-
central MN will also contribute to some convective debris at AXN
and STC early this afternoon. Areas of fog look possible Sunday
morning, especially at southern MN and WI terminals. Have
largely gone MVFR at these terminals for a couple of hours near
sunrise. The exception being EAU where at least IFR looks more
likely. VFR expected the rest of the period once fog burns off.
South-southeasterly winds will be near 10 knots in western MN
this afternoon with winds slowing to under 5 knots area-wide
tonight. Winds increase and turn south-southeasterly Sunday
morning.
KMSP...Added a TEMPO from 18-19Z today for some broken MVFR cigs
as the cumulus field matures.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind N 5-10G15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Benton-Douglas-
Freeborn-Goodhue-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Stearns-
Steele-Todd.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui
Parle-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Anoka-
Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-
Hennepin-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-
Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-
Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Barron-Chippewa-
Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...CTG
View a Different U.S. Forecast Discussion Location
(In alphabetical order by state)
|
|
|
|